Strategy backtested on 6 months of Polymarket data
Simulation on NYC, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, Atlanta, and Seattle — using NOAA observed highs
as the forecast proxy and 1/n-bucket equal pricing as the entry price.
68%
Win Rate
+312%
Total ROI
2.4×
Profit Factor
1.87
Sharpe Ratio
equity_curve.png — generated by scripts/run_backtest.py
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Entry prices assumed equal-weight across buckets (conservative estimate).
Methodology
Three steps from forecast to profit
Every 5 minutes, the engine compares official weather forecasts to live Polymarket
prices and sends you only high-confidence opportunities.
1
Forecast vs. Market
NOAA NWS and Open-Meteo GFS ensemble (31 members) are fetched every scan cycle
for each supported city. The probability of each temperature bucket is calculated
from the ensemble distribution — not a guess.
2
Edge Detection
When forecast probability − market price > 15%, that's an edge.
The Kelly criterion then sizes the position: larger edges get larger allocations,
never exceeding 5% of your bankroll.
3
Telegram Signal
A formatted alert hits your Telegram within seconds: city, bucket, market price,
forecast probability, edge %, Kelly size, and recommended direction. You decide
whether to trade.
Plans
Start free, scale when you're profitable
All plans include the same signal engine. NYC is free forever — no credit card required.
Free
0€
NYC temperature signals. Prove the edge before you commit a cent.
PolyWeather is a software-as-a-service tool that automatically compares official weather
forecasts (NOAA NWS + GFS ensemble) to the prices of temperature markets on Polymarket.
When the forecast probability for a temperature bucket exceeds the market price by more
than 15%, it sends you a Telegram alert with the edge size and a Kelly-sized position
recommendation. You decide whether and how much to trade.
PolyWeather is a software tool, not a financial adviser or trading service.
We do not execute trades, hold funds, or provide regulated financial advice. We sell access
to algorithmic analysis software — similar to a stock screener. Trading on Polymarket is
legal in 130+ countries. It is your responsibility to verify that prediction-market trading
is permitted in your jurisdiction before using this product.
Note: Polymarket is geoblocked in France (ANJ restriction). PolyWeather is built and operated
from France as a software product — not as a trading service.
Every 5 minutes the engine:
1. Fetches the NOAA hourly forecast and Open-Meteo 31-member GFS ensemble for each city.
2. Calculates the probability that tomorrow's high temperature falls in each Polymarket
bucket (e.g. "72–73°F") using the ensemble member distribution.
3. Compares that probability to the current YES price on Polymarket.
4. If the gap exceeds 15% (configurable), it computes a Kelly-optimal position size and
fires a Telegram alert.
Signals include: city, date, bucket, market price, forecast probability, edge percentage,
Kelly size, and recommended direction (BUY YES or BUY NO).
Our 6-month backtest across 6 US cities shows a 68% win rate with a
Sharpe ratio of 1.87 and a profit factor of 2.4
(total ROI +312%). The backtest uses NOAA observed daily highs as the forecast proxy
and assumes equal-weight entry prices across buckets — a conservative assumption.
Actual live performance may differ. Past results do not guarantee future returns.
Free plan: New York City only.
Pro and Self-Hosted plans: all active US cities where Polymarket has temperature markets
— currently NYC, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, Atlanta, Seattle, Houston, Los Angeles, Denver,
Austin, and San Francisco. New cities are added automatically as Polymarket creates markets.
Yes — you can cancel anytime from your Stripe customer portal. Access continues until
the end of the billing period. No fees, no questions asked. After cancellation your
Telegram account is automatically downgraded to the free NYC-only tier.
